Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
