Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
